South Sudan is currently facing a critical political crisis that threatens to unravel the peace established after its previous civil war. On March 26, 2025, First Vice President Riek Machar was placed under house arrest in the capital, Juba, following clashes between forces loyal to him and those of President Salva Kiir. This arrest has led Machar’s party to declare that the 2018 peace agreement, which ended a five-year civil war, has effectively collapsed. 

The rivalry between Kiir and Machar is deeply rooted, with both leaders hailing from different ethnic groups—Kiir from the Dinka and Machar from the Nuer. Their historical leadership roles within the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement have been marked by competition and conflict, culminating in the civil war from 2013 to 2018. Despite the peace agreement, disputes over power-sharing, delayed elections, and the slow integration of their respective forces into a unified army have perpetuated tensions. ​

In response to the escalating situation, Kenya has dispatched former Prime Minister Raila Odinga to South Sudan as a special envoy. The aim of this mission is to mediate between the conflicting parties and prevent a relapse into full-scale civil war.  International bodies, including the United Nations, have expressed deep concern, warning that the arrest brings the country closer to renewed civil conflict, jeopardizing the lives of millions. ​

The United States has also called on President Kiir to release Vice President Machar, highlighting fears that the arrest and escalating violence could reignite ethnic tensions reminiscent of the previous civil war. In light of the deteriorating security situation, the United Kingdom has advised its citizens to leave South Sudan, reflecting the heightened risks present in the country. ​

Analysts note that the failure to implement key provisions of the peace agreement, such as the unification of armed forces and the establishment of a permanent constitution, has contributed to the current crisis. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further violence if immediate and effective interventions are not enacted.​

What does this mean for Seed Effect and the people we serve? 

In 2024, we relaunched our operations in South Sudan with a small pilot in the border town of Kajo Keji, which is about 90 miles on rough roads from Juba, where the current situation is unfolding. 

Here’s what Bismarck Yengi, our Seed Effect South Sudan Country Director, shared:

“The situation in the country is not looking good, especially in the Upper Nile region. The recent house arrest of Dr. Riek Machar, his wife, and some of his top officials has created a sense of insecurity among the people. Many are now questioning how the opposition will respond, particularly those in Juba, given that both key political leaders are based there.

As for Kajo-Keji, things remain calm for now. Businesses are operating as usual. However, if fighting erupts in Juba, it will likely have an impact here, as some individuals may seek to exploit the situation for their own interests. If not handled carefully, this situation could undermine the relative peace the country has experienced since 2018.”

We’re watching the situation closely as it presents several concerns and implications for our work and the people we serve, especially around staff safety, program continuity, and community impact. Here’s a breakdown of what it might mean: 

1. Security Risks Are Escalating—Kajo Keji is near the Ugandan border, which offers a relative buffer compared to more central conflict zones like Juba. If the conflict spreads along ethnic or political lines—as it has historically—it could reach Kajo Keji, affecting the safety of our staff and members.

2. Possible Disruption of Field Operations—Local operations may need to be delayed or suspended depending on how the situation evolves, the impact on safety, and the implications of displacement.

3. Increased Needs Among Communities—Crises like this exacerbate poverty and displacement, making Seed Effect’s work even more vital. The most likely scenario in the case of displacement is that our current members will travel across the border into Uganda, where Seed Effect is already set up in seven refugee settlements across the north. We’re ready to continue serving our members, whether they’re in South Sudan or in Uganda.

🙏 Please Join Us in Prayer For:

1. Peace and Stability in South Sudan—As tensions rise between political leaders, we are praying for God’s intervention, a breakthrough in peace efforts, and that violence will not escalate into another civil war. Pray for wisdom and humility among leaders and for healing across ethnic and political divisions.

2. Protection for Our Team in Kajo Keji—Lift up the Seed Effect team serving faithfully in Kajo Keji. Pray for their safety, courage, and discernment as they navigate this uncertain and potentially dangerous time. Ask God to be their refuge and shield.

3. Provision for Vulnerable Communities—Pray that the communities Seed Effect serves will be safe from violence and that they will experience God’s peace and provision through His people.

4. Continued Mission Impact—Ask God to protect the work He has started through Seed Effect in South Sudan. Pray that our program will continue to bring hope, dignity, and opportunity—even in the midst of unrest.

5. Wisdom for Leadership and Partners—Pray for Seed Effect’s local and global leadership, and for our partners on the ground. May we be guided by wisdom, compassion, and clarity in every decision as we respond to the evolving situation.

We are continuing to monitor the situation and will provide updates. Here are a few links to read more about the evolving political crisis: 

• AP: Fears of civil war in South Sudan stem from political rivalry between the president and his deputy
• Reuters: Kenya sends former PM Odinga to South Sudan in effort to ease crisis
• Reuters: Detention of South Sudan’s VP Machar cancels peace deal, his party says
• Reuters: UK advises British nationals in South Sudan to leave
• The Guardian: Fears intensify of return to civil war as South Sudan vice-president arrested

Thank you so much for praying for South Sudan, Seed Effect, our members and staff!